Understanding the Spread of Projects Under Tinubu: North, South, and the Bigger Picture.

I am not a member of this government, neither was I a part of the politicians that brought it to power. On the contrary, I was on a Presidential ticket seeking the same mandate as the duo presently occupying the Nigerian presidency. However, from my personal observations of the development trajectory of the country, as well as the political realignments, the utterances of political figures who have been instrumental to the establishment of the APC governments since 2015, and who have been massive beneficiaries of the APC both politically and fortune wise, I see a clear pattern.

Their ongoing conduct, hostile and untidy takeovers of smaller political platforms, mirrors precisely how they behaved while in power: arrogant, selfish, and full of impunity against the weak, the very people they swore to protect and uplift, but instead exploited for their own gain. The truth is, all of them can make the speeches of the need for tough policy changes, but none of them would have been able to sustain the momentum of positive development like the current President. They would have fallen prey once again to their selfish inhibitions, or barked at the people with arrogance and entitlement as they did before while in power.

It is against this background that I have taken a closer look at the claims, counter claims, and actual evidence about where the Tinubu administration is focusing its biggest national projects, especially the debate about Lagos, the South, and the North.

The National Project Balance: North vs South.

According to figures drawn from the Federal Ministry of Works’ June 2025 portfolio updates, Budget Office publications, and project values cited in ministerial briefings, over 52% of ongoing federal infrastructure projects by value are in Northern Nigeria.

The flagship Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway, spanning 1,068 km, is budgeted at roughly ₦15.6 trillion, connecting eleven northern and central states to the Southwest trade corridor. For comparison, the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is projected at about ₦15 trillion for the entire 700 km stretch. The cost differences reflect geography and engineering: the coastal route demands marine bridges and shoreline protection, while the Sokoto–Badagry route covers vast inland terrain, heavy drainage works, and multiple long span river crossings.

Beyond roads, the Abuja–Kaduna–Kano rail modernization is estimated at over $6 billion, around ₦9 trillion at current rates, one of the largest single rail investments in Nigeria’s history. The Mambilla hydroelectric project, when fully financed, is projected at $4.8 billion, and the Zungeru power plant already delivered is valued at about $1.3 billion. Add the Maiduguri gas pipeline corridor and major airport upgrades in Kano and Katsina, and the North’s federal infrastructure footprint grows even larger.

Security spending further tilts northwards: between 75% and 80% of the annual security budget is deployed in the North West and North East, covering troop operations, air support, intelligence, and the rebuilding of liberated communities.

FAAC allocations also show relative balance. In the first half of 2025, Northern states received over 48% of all FAAC disbursements to the 36 states, averaging ₦17–₦18 billion per state monthly compared to the national average of ₦16.5 billion. Northern LGAs take more than half of the ₦444.8 billion monthly LGA share. Demographically, the North holds roughly 53–55% of the national population, so these allocations follow population and revenue formulas rather than outright neglect.

This data makes one thing clear: in pure value terms, the North holds a slightly larger share of ongoing federal infrastructure projects than the South.

Focusing in on Lagos: Cost and Context.

Within the South’s share of projects, Lagos naturally attracts a large proportion of high profile investments. Using the official rate of ₦1,534.52 = $1, the Lagos anchored federal projects include:

• Third Mainland Bridge rehabilitation framework: ₦3.8 trillion* (procurement ceiling, not final awarded cost).

• Carter Bridge replacement: ₦359 billion.

• Eko Bridge emergency works: ₦21 billion.

• Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway (Phase 1 compensation): ₦18 billion.

• Lekki Deep Sea Port evacuation road: $652 million ≈ ₦1.0 trillion.

Total: approximately ₦5.2 trillion in Lagos related federal infrastructure.

Lagos attracts these projects because it is the nation’s economic gateway. It handles about 80% of foreign trade flows, generates over 50% of port revenues, and contributes roughly 30%–35% of Nigeria’s GDP while housing less than 10% of the population. In Q2 2024, services made up 91.6% of Lagos’s GDP, with trade alone contributing over 53%.

Fixing Lagos bottlenecks benefits every region. 

Agricultural produce from the North, manufactured goods from the East, and exports from the Niger Delta all pass through Lagos’s port and road systems. While some argue that dispersing investments more widely could reduce over concentration, the current approach uses Lagos as an anchor node to open trade corridors that smaller hubs can plug into over time.

The Coastal Highway’s Wider Benefits.

Although it starts in Lagos, the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is not a Lagos only investment. It will run through Ogun, Ondo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River, opening up tourism corridors, manufacturing zones, and agricultural belts along the coastline.

Smaller hubs such as Warri, Yenagoa, Port Harcourt, and Uyo will be plugged directly into major national and regional trade routes, giving them faster access to markets and lowering logistics costs.

Why Kano is a Strategic Northern Hub.

Kano’s role in the North is similar to Lagos’s role in the South. While it accounts for just under 3% of national GDP, Kano represents about 12% of the Northern economy and is the third largest non oil economy in Nigeria, valued at between ₦23–₦29 trillion. It is the commercial and manufacturing hub of Northern Nigeria, and most of the region’s trade, formal and informal, passes through it.

This makes it the natural terminus for the AKK Gas Pipeline (₦4.3 trillion), the Kano–Kaduna railway (₦1.5 trillion), and the Abuja–Kaduna–Zaria–Kano Expressway (₦800 billion). These projects are designed to give Kano the same kind of efficient, high volume connectivity to ports and markets that Lagos enjoys.

Linking the Country: National Economic Corridors.

The federal plan, whether formally published or not, appears to aim at linking all major and emerging trade hubs into one national grid:

• Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway connects far North West states through the Middle Belt to Lagos, energising towns from Sokoto to Ilorin.

• Eastern Highway (Calabar to Maiduguri) ties the South East to the far North East, linking hubs like Aba, Makurdi, Jalingo, and Yola to Cross River’s ports.

• The AKK pipeline supplies energy to industrial towns along its route, not just its terminal cities.

• The Lagos–Sokoto corridor strengthens Ilorin, Minna, and Birnin Kebbi, while the Coastal Highway boosts Warri, Yenagoa, Port Harcourt, and Calabar.

Opening Up Other Trade Hubs Along the Corridors.

Mega project corridors are not just about the biggest cities. The AKK pipeline will also serve smaller industrial towns along its path. The Kano–Kaduna railway and the Abuja–Kaduna–Zaria–Kano expressway will open up Zaria, Wudil, Rano, and other towns to greater commerce. The Coastal Highway will benefit Warri, Yenagoa, Port Harcourt, Uyo, and Calabar. The Lagos–Sokoto corridor will boost Ilorin, Minna, and Birnin Kebbi.

This network effect, where improvements in one link of the chain benefit many others, spreads development opportunities more widely, ensuring that the benefits of these massive investments are not concentrated only in the anchor cities.

The Bigger Economic Logic.

Taken together, these investments resemble a deliberate national connectivity plan, though the government has not formally published such a blueprint. The structure appears to rest on:

• Energy backbone: AKK pipeline, Mambilla, Zungeru, and Maiduguri gas corridor.

• Transport spine: Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway in the West, Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway in the South, and Calabar–Maiduguri Highway in the East.

• Trade hubs: Lagos ports, Kano markets, and middle sized cities like Ilorin, Aba, Makurdi, and Yola.

• Balanced growth: linking high production areas in the North with high export capacity in the South lowers costs, creates jobs, and raises competitiveness nationwide.

The sequencing appears strategic: build strong anchor links first (Lagos and Kano), then extend the network to middle tier hubs, ensuring early returns and sustainable growth. The success of this approach will depend on consistent funding, timely execution, and effective maintenance.

Conclusion.

When you strip away the noise and examine the numbers, the North actually holds a slightly larger share of ongoing federal infrastructure projects by value than the South. Lagos’s projects are large and visible because they are tied to the national economy’s main artery, the ports and their connecting corridors. Kano’s projects are equally strategic, anchoring the North’s industrial and agricultural engine.

Lagos is the legacy of its people, yes, but modern Lagos is Asiwaju’s legacy. And Lagos has been instrumental to our collective development and prosperity. So let us give Lagos some breathing space.

#yb

Citations / Source Links.

1. Federal Ministry of Works – “FG Flags Off Construction of 1,068 km Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway” : https://fmino.gov.ng/federal-government-flags-off-the-construction-of-1068-km-sokoto-badagry-super-highway

2. Wikipedia – “Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway” (project details and estimated costs) : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos-Calabar_Coastal_Highway

3. Nairametrics – “FEC Approves N2 Trillion for Sokoto–Badagry Highway Sections, N1.65 Trillion for Lagos–Calabar Coastal Road : https://nairametrics.com/2025/08/01/fec-approves-n2-trillion-for-sokoto-badagry-highway-sections-n1-65-trillion-for-lagos-calabar-coastal-road 

4. TVC News – “FAAC Shares N1.818 Trillion for June — Highest Allocation in 2025 : https://www.tvcnews.tv/faac-shares-n1-818-trillion-for-june-highest-allocation-in-2025

5. Budget Office of the Federation – FAAC Allocation Data & Revenue Distribution Formula : https://www.budgetoffice.gov.ng 

6. Debt Management Office (DMO) – Federal Project Financing Data & Loan Approvals : https://www.dmo.gov.ng

7. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – GDP by State and Sector Reports : https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng